Einschätzungen zur geopolitischen Krise um Nordkorea – Präsentation vom 28.09.2017 im FORUM 3

Aus aktuellem Anlass fand gestern im Stuttgarter Jugend und Bildungszentrum FORUM 3 ein Vortragsabend mit zwei Referenten statt unter dem Titel:

NORDKOREA aktuell – Reiseeindrücke, Bilder und Einschätzungen zur geopolitischen Krise

Alex Knauer
Stephan Best *)

Der Foliensatz zur Gemengelage der gegenwärtigen geopolitischen Krise, in der Mittlerweile die Hauptkontrahenten sich und ihren Bevölkerungen wechselseitig öffentlich mit ggf. atomarer Vernichtung drohen, löst begreiflicherweise bei nicht wenigen Menschen auch abseits des Schauplatzes erhebliche Ängste vor einer militärischen Eskalation aus.

Leider fehlt vor diesem Hintergrund zumeist entsprechendes historisches Wissen und die Kenntnis von Fakten mit denen ein Einordnen oder Verstehen der jüngsten Eskalation wenigstens im Ansatz zu leisten wäre. Stattdessen werden bspw. in unseren westlichen Leitmedien wiederholt psychologisierende Deutungsmuster eines Donald Trump oder Kim Jong-un angeboten, welche zwar Zweifel aufkommen lassen, ob diese als ‚Staatenlenker‘ noch Herr der Lage und Willens sind entsprechend rational eine friedliche Lösung des Konflikts herbei zu führen, zu einer eher nüchternen Beurteilung der vorliegenden Interessenkonstellationen genügt dies keinesfalls.

Was Medial ebenso verschwiegen wird sind die geopolitischen Machtverschiebungen der zurückliegenden Jahre in Asien, das Wachsen insbesondere des chinesischen Einflusses im Rahmen der BRI (Belt and Road Initiative/ One Belt one Road), die damit verbundene allmähliche Abkehr vom Dollar als Leitwährung und die Reaktionen der US Außenpolitik auf solche Entwicklungen. Dabei fällt auf, dass trotz anders lautender Proklamationen eines Präsidentschaftskandidaten Trump sich schon recht bald nach dessen Amtsantritt eine deutliche Rückkehr hin zu einem außenpolitischen Interventionismus der Vereinigten Staaten abgespielt hat. Welche Interessengruppen den Präsidenten zum Verfechter einer unipolaren Weltordnung umformatierten, ist ebenfalls Gegenstand dieses Vortrags.

Stephan Best 29.09.2017

*) Präsentation Korea-Krise final

Die Foliensammlung steht als PDF zum Download bereit
(Aus urheberrechtlichen Gründen bitte nur zum persönlichen Gebrauch!)

Anmerkung: Nicht alle Folien der PDF-Version wurden aus Zeitgründen während meines Vortrags gezeigt; sie dienen aber der Klärung und Veranschaulichung der gemachten Ausführungen und Diskussionsaspekte.

Why North Korea Needs Nukes – And How To End Them ‹ Moon of Alabama ‹ Reader — WordPress.com

Quelle: Why North Korea Needs Nukes – And How To End Them ‹ Moon of Alabama ‹ Reader — WordPress.com

April 14, 2017

Why North Korea Needs Nukes – And How To End Them

Media say,
the United States may
or may not
kill a number of North Koreans
for this or that
or no good reason
but call North Korea
‚the volatile and unpredictable regime‘

 

Now consider what the U.S. media don’t tell you about Korea:

BEIJING, March 8 (Xinhua) — China proposed „double suspension“ to defuse the looming crisis on the Korean Peninsula, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Wednesday.“As a first step, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) may suspend its nuclear and missile activities in exchange for the suspension of large-scale U.S.-Republic of Korea (ROK) military exercises,“ Wang told a press conference on the sidelines of the annual session of the National People’s Congress.

Wang said the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula is mainly between the DPRK and the United States, but China, as a next-door neighbor with a lips-and-teeth relationship with the Peninsula, is indispensable to the resolution of the issue.

FM Wang, ‚the lips‘, undoubtedly transmitted an authorized message from North Korea: „The offer is (still) on the table and China supports it.“

North Korea has made the very same offer in January 2015. The Obama administration rejected it. North Korea repeated the offer in April 2016 and the Obama administration rejected it again. This March the Chinese government conveyed and supported the long-standing North Korean offer. The U.S. government, now under the Trump administration, immediately rejected it again. The offer, made and rejected three years in a row, is sensible. Its rejection only led to a bigger nuclear arsenal and to more missiles with longer reach that will eventually be able to reach the United States.

North Korea is understandably nervous each and every time the U.S. and South Korea launch their very large yearly maneuvers and openly train for invading North Korea and for killing its government and people. The maneuvers have large negative impacts on North Korea’s economy.

North Korea justifies its nuclear program as the economically optimal way to respond to these maneuvers. (…)

Federico PIERACCINI: Geopolitics, Globalization and World Order Part I – IV; strategic-culture-foundation, 19.12.2016 – 15.01.2017

globalcrisis/globalchange NEWS
Martin Zeis, 15.01.2017

Dear all,

I entrust to you the four-part series of articles written by Federico PIERACCINI about Geopolitics, Globalization and World Order.

„In this series of four articles I intend to lay a very detailed but easily understandable foundation for describing the mechanisms that drive great powers. To succeed, one must analyze the geopolitical theories that over more than a century have contributed to shaping the relationship between Washington and other world powers. Secondly, it is important to expound on how Washington’s main geopolitical opponents (China, Russia and Iran) have over the years been arranging a way to put a stop to the intrusive and overbearing actions of Washington. Finally, it is important to take note of the possibly significant changes in American foreign policy doctrine that have been occurring over the last twenty years, especially how the new Trump administration intends to change course by redefining priorities and objectives.“ Pieraccini, 19.12.2016

„The preceding three parts of this series analyzed the mechanisms that drive great powers. The most in-depth understanding of the issues concerned the determination of the objectives and logic that accompany the expansion of an empire. Geopolitical theories, the concrete application of foreign-policy doctrines, and concrete actions that the United States employed to aspire to global dominance were examined. Finally, the last bit of analysis focused particularly on how Iran, China and Russia have adopted over the years a variety of cultural, economic and military moves to repel the continual assault on their sovereignty by the West. Finally, specific attention was given to the American drive for global hegemony and how this has actually accelerated the end of the ‚unipolar moment‘, impelling the emergence of a multipolar world order.

In this fourth and final analysis I will focus on a possible strategic shift in the approach to foreign policy from Washington. The most likely hypothesis suggests that Trump intends to attempt to prevent the ongoing integration between Russia, China and Iran.“, Pieraccini, 15.01.2017

I’ve compiled the articles in one pdf-file (attached, 22 p) – separate they are available via following URLs:

Author: Federico Pieraccini

I. Geopolitics, Globalization and World Order, 19.12.2016
www.strategic-culture.org/news/2016/12/19/geopolitics-globalization-and-world-order.html

II. The United States and The Race for Global Hegemony, 23.12.2016
www.strategic-culture.org/news/2016/12/23/united-states-and-race-global-hegemony.html

III. How a United Iran, Russia and China are Changing The World – For the Better, 01.01.2017
www.strategic-culture.org/news/2017/01/01/how-united-iran-russia-china-changing-world-better.html

IV. Trump’s Delusion: Halting Eurasian Integration and Saving ‚US World Order‘, 15.01.2017
www.strategic-culture.org/news/2017/01/15/trumps-delusion-halting-eurasian-integration-saving-us-world-order.html

PIERACCINI-Geopolitics2016-17_Dec-Jan.pdf

The World in the Era of Trump: What May We Expect?

The World in the Era of Trump: What May We Expect?  Immanuel Wallerstein

Commentary No. 440, January 1, 2017

Short-term prediction is the most treacherous of activities. I normally try never to do it. Rather, I analyze what is going on in terms of the longue durée of its history and the probable consequences in the middle-run. I have decided nonetheless to make short-term predictions this time for one simple reason. It seems to me that everyone everywhere is focused for the moment on what will now happen in the short run. There seems to be no other subject of interest. Anxiety is at its maximum, and we need to deal with it.

Let me start by saying that I think 95% of the policies Donald Trump will pursue in his first year or so in office will be absolutely terrible, worse than we anticipated. This can be seen already in the appointments to major office that he has announced. At the same time, he will probably run into major trouble. (…)

Quelle: The World in the Era of Trump: What May We Expect?

Jochen Scholz über geopolitische Ursachen des Krieges in Syrien — RT Deutsch

29.10.2016 Jochen SCHOLZ, ehemaliger Referent im Verteidigungsministerium, äußert sich im Gespräch mit RT Deutsch-Reporter Stefan Dyck zu den Ursachen des Syrien-Kriegs. Das Gespräch fand am Rande des Kongresses „Brandherd Syrien“ bei Kassel statt.

Quelle: Jochen Scholz über geopolitische Ursachen des Krieges in Syrien — RT Deutsch

Andrew KORYBKO – Hybrid Wars 6. Trick To Containing China (IX)

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Quelle: Hybrid Wars 6. Trick To Containing China (IX)Andrew Korybko is the American political commentator currently working for the Sputnik agency. He is the post-graduate of the MGIMO University and author of the monograph “Hybrid Wars: The Indirect Adaptive Approach To Regime Change” (2015). This text will be included into his forthcoming book on the theory of Hybrid Warfare.

 

PREVIOUS CHAPTERS:

Hybrid Wars 1. The Law Of Hybrid Warfare

Hybrid Wars 2. Testing the Theory – Syria & Ukraine

Hybrid Wars 3. Predicting Next Hybrid Wars

Hybrid Wars 4. In the Greater Heartland

Hybrid Wars 5. Breaking the Balkans