Einschätzungen zur geopolitischen Krise um Nordkorea – Präsentation vom 28.09.2017 im FORUM 3

Aus aktuellem Anlass fand gestern im Stuttgarter Jugend und Bildungszentrum FORUM 3 ein Vortragsabend mit zwei Referenten statt unter dem Titel:

NORDKOREA aktuell – Reiseeindrücke, Bilder und Einschätzungen zur geopolitischen Krise

Alex Knauer
Stephan Best *)

Der Foliensatz zur Gemengelage der gegenwärtigen geopolitischen Krise, in der Mittlerweile die Hauptkontrahenten sich und ihren Bevölkerungen wechselseitig öffentlich mit ggf. atomarer Vernichtung drohen, löst begreiflicherweise bei nicht wenigen Menschen auch abseits des Schauplatzes erhebliche Ängste vor einer militärischen Eskalation aus.

Leider fehlt vor diesem Hintergrund zumeist entsprechendes historisches Wissen und die Kenntnis von Fakten mit denen ein Einordnen oder Verstehen der jüngsten Eskalation wenigstens im Ansatz zu leisten wäre. Stattdessen werden bspw. in unseren westlichen Leitmedien wiederholt psychologisierende Deutungsmuster eines Donald Trump oder Kim Jong-un angeboten, welche zwar Zweifel aufkommen lassen, ob diese als ‚Staatenlenker‘ noch Herr der Lage und Willens sind entsprechend rational eine friedliche Lösung des Konflikts herbei zu führen, zu einer eher nüchternen Beurteilung der vorliegenden Interessenkonstellationen genügt dies keinesfalls.

Was Medial ebenso verschwiegen wird sind die geopolitischen Machtverschiebungen der zurückliegenden Jahre in Asien, das Wachsen insbesondere des chinesischen Einflusses im Rahmen der BRI (Belt and Road Initiative/ One Belt one Road), die damit verbundene allmähliche Abkehr vom Dollar als Leitwährung und die Reaktionen der US Außenpolitik auf solche Entwicklungen. Dabei fällt auf, dass trotz anders lautender Proklamationen eines Präsidentschaftskandidaten Trump sich schon recht bald nach dessen Amtsantritt eine deutliche Rückkehr hin zu einem außenpolitischen Interventionismus der Vereinigten Staaten abgespielt hat. Welche Interessengruppen den Präsidenten zum Verfechter einer unipolaren Weltordnung umformatierten, ist ebenfalls Gegenstand dieses Vortrags.

Stephan Best 29.09.2017

*) Präsentation Korea-Krise final

Die Foliensammlung steht als PDF zum Download bereit
(Aus urheberrechtlichen Gründen bitte nur zum persönlichen Gebrauch!)

Anmerkung: Nicht alle Folien der PDF-Version wurden aus Zeitgründen während meines Vortrags gezeigt; sie dienen aber der Klärung und Veranschaulichung der gemachten Ausführungen und Diskussionsaspekte.

Pepe ESCOBAR: The real BRICS bombshell; Asia Times Sep 05, 2017 + related articles

globalcrisis/change NEWS

Martin Zeis, Sep 07, 2017

Dear all,

below wellknown „Roving Eye“ Pepe Escobar boils the landmark Xiamen-BRICS-move – challenging the USD-hegemony – down to an essence.

More substantial articles relating to the Korea-Crisis, the geopolitical shift in the Pacific Rim and the importance of the Shanghai/Hongkong-established Crude-Oil-Yuan-Gold-Futures see:

http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2017/09/02/three-dangerous-delusions-about-korea.html

Three Dangerous Delusions About Korea

By James Jatras, Sep 02, 2017

http://www.globalresearch.ca/proposal-for-a-lasting-korea-peace-agreement-signing-of-a-bilateral-north-south-korea-peace-treaty/5607686

Proposal for a Lasting Korea Peace Agreement: Signing of a Bilateral North-South Korea Peace Treaty

By Prof Michel Chossudovsky

Global Research, September 05, 2017

http://www.globalresearch.ca/americas-financial-war-strategy/5587886

America’s Financial War Strategy

By Alasdair Macleod, May 02, 2017

http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Readies-Yuan-Priced-Crude-Oil-Benchmark-Backed-By-Gold.html

China Readies Yuan-Priced Crude Oil Benchmark Backed By Gold

By Tsvetana Paraskova – Sep 01, 2017

Greets, Martin Zeis

+++++

05.09.2017  —  http://www.atimes.com/article/real-brics-bombshell/

The real BRICS bombshell

Putin reveals ‚fair multipolar world‘ concept in which oil contracts could bypass the US dollar and be traded with oil, yuan and gold

By Pepe Escobar

The annual BRICS summit in Xiamen – where President Xi Jinping was once mayor – could not intervene in a more incandescent geopolitical context.

Once again, it’s essential to keep in mind that the current core of BRICS is “RC”; the Russia-China strategic partnership. So in the Korean peninsula chessboard, RC context – with both nations sharing borders with the DPRK – is primordial.

Beijing has imposed a definitive veto on war – of which the Pentagon is very much aware.

Pyongyang’s sixth nuclear test, although planned way in advance, happened only three days after two nuclear-capable US B-1B strategic bombers conducted their own “test” alongside four F-35Bs and a few Japanese F-15s.

Everyone familiar with the Korean peninsula chessboard knew there would be a DPRK response to these barely disguised “decapitation” tests.

So it’s back to the only sound proposition on the table: the RC “double freeze”. Freeze on US/Japan/South Korea military drills; freeze on North Korea’s nuclear program; diplomacy takes over.

The White House, instead, has evoked ominous “nuclear capabilities” as a conflict resolution mechanism.

Gold mining in the Amazon, anyone?

On the Doklam plateau front, at least New Delhi and Beijing decided, after two tense months, on “expeditious disengagement” of their border troops. This decision was directly linked to the approaching BRICS summit – where both India and China were set to lose face big time.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had already tried a similar disruption gambit prior to the BRICS Goa summit last year. Then, he was adamant that Pakistan should be declared a “terrorist state”. The RC duly vetoed it.

Modi also ostensively boycotted the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) summit in Hangzhou last May, essentially because of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

India and Japan are dreaming of countering BRI with a semblance of connectivity project; the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC). To believe that the AAGC – with a fraction of the reach, breath, scope and funds available to BRI – may steal its thunder, is to enter prime wishful-thinking territory.

Still, Modi emitted some positive signs in Xiamen; “We are in mission-mode to eradicate poverty; to ensure health, sanitation, skills, food security, gender equality, energy, education.” Without this mammoth effort, India’s lofty geopolitical dreams are D.O.A.

Brazil, for its part, is immersed in a larger-than-life socio-political tragedy, “led” by a Dracula-esque, corrupt non-entity; Temer The Usurper. Brazil’s President, Michel Temer, hit Xiamen eager to peddle “his” 57 major, ongoing privatizations to Chinese investors – complete with corporate gold mining in an Amazon nature reserve the size of Denmark. Add to it massive social spending austerity and hardcore anti-labor legislation, and one’s got the picture of Brazil currently being run by Wall Street. The name of the game is to profit from the loot, fast.

The BRICS’ New Development Bank (NDB) – a counterpart to the World Bank – is predictably derided all across the Beltway. Xiamen showed how the NDB is only starting to finance BRICS projects. It’s misguided to compare it with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). They will be investing in different types of projects – with the AIIB more focused on BRI. Their aim is complementary.

‘BRICS Plus’ or bust

On the global stage, the BRICS are already a major nuisance to the unipolar order. Xi politely put it in Xiamen as “we five countries [should] play a more active part in global governance”.

And right on cue Xiamen introduced “dialogues” with Mexico, Egypt, Thailand, Guinea and Tajikistan; that’s part of the road map for “BRICS Plus” – Beijing’s conceptualization, proposed last March by Foreign Minister Wang Yi, for expanding partnership/cooperation.

A further instance of “BRICS Plus” can be detected in the possible launch, before the end of 2017, of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – in the wake of the death of TPP.

Contrary to a torrent of Western spin, RCEP is not “led” by China.

Japan is part of it – and so is India and Australia alongside the 10 ASEAN members. The burning question is what kind of games New Delhi may be playing to stall RCEP in parallel to boycotting BRI.

Patrick Bond in Johannesburg has developed an important critique, arguing that “centrifugal economic forces” are breaking up the BRICS, thanks to over-production, excessive debt and de-globalization. He interprets the process as “the failure of Xi’s desired centripetal capitalism.”

It doesn’t have to be this way. Never underestimate the power of Chinese centripetal capitalism – especially when BRI hits a higher gear.

Meet the oil/yuan/gold triad

It’s when President Putin starts talking that the BRICS reveal their true bombshell. Geopolitically and geo-economically, Putin’s emphasis is on a “fair multipolar world”, and “against protectionism and new barriers in global trade.” The message is straight to the point.

The Syria game-changer – where Beijing silently but firmly supported Moscow – had to be evoked; “It was largely thanks to the efforts of Russia and other concerned countries that conditions have been created to improve the situation in Syria.”

On the Korean peninsula, it’s clear how RC think in unison; “The situation is balancing on the brink of a large-scale conflict.”

Putin’s judgment is as scathing as the – RC-proposed – possible solution is sound; “Putting pressure on Pyongyang to stop its nuclear missile program is misguided and futile. The region’s problems should only be settled through a direct dialogue of all the parties concerned without any preconditions.”

Putin’s – and Xi’s – concept of multilateral order is clearly visible in the wide-ranging Xiamen Declaration, which proposes an “Afghan-led and Afghan-owned” peace and national reconciliation process, “including the Moscow Format of consultations” and the “Heart of Asia-Istanbul process”.

That’s code for an all-Asian (and not Western) Afghan solution brokered by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), led by RC, and of which Afghanistan is an observer and future full member.

And then, Putin delivers the clincher;

“Russia shares the BRICS countries’ concerns over the unfairness of the global financial and economic architecture, which does not give due regard to the growing weight of the emerging economies. We are ready to work together with our partners to promote international financial regulation reforms and to overcome the excessive domination of the limited number of reserve currencies.”

“To overcome the excessive domination of the limited number of reserve currencies” is the politest way of stating what the BRICS have been discussing for years now; how to bypass the US dollar, as well as the petrodollar.

Beijing is ready to step up the game. Soon China will launch a crude oil futures contract priced in yuan and convertible into gold.

This means that Russia – as well as Iran, the other key node of Eurasia integration – may bypass US sanctions by trading energy in their own currencies, or in yuan.

Inbuilt in the move is a true Chinese win-win; the yuan will be fully convertible into gold on both the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges.

The new triad of oil, yuan and gold is actually a win-win-win. No problem at all if energy providers prefer to be paid in physical gold instead of yuan. The key message is the US dollar being bypassed.

RC – via the Russian Central Bank and the People’s Bank of China – have been developing ruble-yuan swaps for quite a while now.

Once that moves beyond the BRICS to aspiring “BRICS Plus” members and then all across the Global South, Washington’s reaction is bound to be nuclear (hopefully, not literally).

Washington’s strategic doctrine rules RC should not be allowed by any means to be preponderant along the Eurasian landmass. Yet what the BRICS have in store geo-economically does not concern only Eurasia – but the whole Global South.

Sections of the War Party in Washington bent on instrumentalizing India against China – or against RC – may be in for a rude awakening. As much as the BRICS may be currently facing varied waves of economic turmoil, the daring long-term road map, way beyond the Xiamen Declaration, is very much in place.   —   emphasis, zerohedge  —

GLOBAL RESEARCH, Sep 3, 2017: BRICS: Weakening US Hegemony, Reshaping the Global Economy? – selected articles

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BRICS: Weakening US Hegemony, Reshaping the Global Economy?

By Global Research News
Global Research, September 03, 2017

Url of this article:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/selected-articles-brics-weakening-us-hegemony-reshaping-the-global-economy/5607098

In light of the ninth BRICS summit which will be held in Xiamen, China on September 4 and 5, Global Research brings to your attention some articles on the framework and roadmap of the BRICS partnership.

Will the US empire break the on-going strategic relations between the concerned countries? Or will the BRICS partnership weaken US hegemony and lead the world into a peaceful economic development?

Read our selected articles below.

* * *

Divisive Geopolitics? BRICS Xiamen Summit Doomed by “Centrifugal Economics”?

By Prof. Patrick Bond, August 30, 2017

The Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa summit in Xiamen from September 3-5 is already inscribed with high tension thanks to Sino-Indian border conflicts. But regardless of a welcome new peace deal, centrifugal forces within the fast-whirling world economy threaten to divide the BRICS.

BRICS: Towards New Horizons of Strategic Partnership

By President Vladimir Putin, September 02, 2017

It is important that our group’s activities are based on the principles of equality, respect for one another’s opinions and consensus. Within BRICS, nothing is ever forced on anyone. When the approaches of its members do not coincide, we work patiently and carefully to coordinate them. This open and trust-based atmosphere is conducive to the successful implementation of our tasks.

From A Concept to A Partnership: BRICS Members to Build Future Through Cooperation

By Li Hui, August 29, 2017

Over the past decade, the BRICS bloc has transformed itself from a concept to an entity by strengthening dialogue, deepening cooperation and establishing the New Development Bank (NDB) and Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA).

The Global Economic Chessboard and the Role of the BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa

By Jayati Ghosh, August 27, 2017

Strange things happen in the world. Imagine a grouping of countries spread across the globe, which gets formed only for the simple reason that an analyst for an investment bank decides that these countries have some things in common, including future potential for growth, and then creates an acronym of their names! Bizarre but true.

BRICS and the Fiction of “De-Dollarization”

By Prof Michel Chossudovsky, August 27, 2017

What is significant, however, from a geopolitical standpoint is that China and Russia are developing a ruble-yuan swap, negotiated between the Russian Central Bank, and the People’s Bank of China.

The situation of the other three BRICS member states (Brazil, India, South Africa) with regard to the implementation of (real, rand rupiah) currency swaps is markedly different. These three highly indebted countries are in the straightjacket of IMF-World Bank conditionalities. They do not decide on fundamental issues of monetary policy and macro-economic reform without the green light from the Washington based international financial institutions.

BRICS: Turning Point to the New World Economic System, China’s Crucial Role

By Živadin Jovanović and People’s Daily, August 23, 2017

Establishment and the role of BRICS is of historic importance for the present and for the future of the world economic relations and development. BRICS represent a turning point from the world system of domination to the world sovereign equality and equal chances for all. From the system of deepening economic and social gaps to the system of equitable distribution of wealth and human well-being centered strategies.

‘Building a BRICS Wall’: Stopping the Western Juggernaut

By Adrian Salbuchi, July 16, 2014

BRICS today runs the risk of seeing an avalanche of membership request forms raining on its desk. Country after country is toying with the idea of joining BRICS.

* * *

open.php?u=2cc48fb30f331d97157a65aa2&id=d9339e8524&e=73e89fee8d

Shaun BRADLEY: The End Of The (Petro)Dollar: What The Fed Doesn’t Want You To Know; antimedia/zerohedge 27.06.2017

Below Shaun BRADLEY surveys the increasingly loss of the Petro-Dollar’s importance and indicates, that the (US-backed) attacks on Qatar are motivated among other reasons by the country’s cautious shift away from the US currency …

Greets,
Martin Zeis

27.06.2017 — www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-27/end-petrodollar-what-fed-doesnt-want-you-know

The End Of The (Petro)Dollar: What The Fed Doesn’t Want You To Know

Authored by Shaun Bradley via TheAntiMedia.org

The United States’ ability to maintain its influence over the rest of the world has been slowly diminishing. Since the petrodollar was established in 1971, U.S. currency has monopolized international trade through oil deals with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and continuous military interventions. There is, however, growing opposition to the American standard, and it gained more support recently when several Gulf states suddenly blockaded Qatar, which they accused of funding terrorism.

Despite the mainstream narrative, there are several other reasons why Qatar is in the crosshairs. Over the past two years, it conducted over $86 billion worth of transactions in Chinese yuan and has signed other agreements with China that encourage further economic cooperation. Qatar also shares the world’s largest natural gas field with Iran, giving the two countries significant regional influence to expand their own trade deals.

Meanwhile, uncontrollable debt and political divisions in the United States are clear signs of vulnerability. The Chinese and Russians proactively set up alternative financial systems for countries looking to distance themselves from the Federal Reserve. After the IMF accepted the yuan into its basket of reserve currencies in October of last year, investors and economists finally started to pay attention. The economic power held by the Federal Reserve has been key in financing the American empire, but geopolitical changes are happening fast. The United States’ reputation has been tarnished by decades of undeclared wars, mass surveillance, and catastrophic foreign policy.

One of America’s best remaining assets is its military strength, but it’s useless without a strong economy to fund it. Rival coalitions like the BRICS nations aren’t challenging the established order head on and are instead opting to undermine its financial support. Qatar is just the latest country to take steps to bypass the U.S. dollar. Russia made headlines in 2016 when they started accepting payments in yuan and took over as China’s largest oil partner, stealing a huge market share from Saudi Arabia in the process. Iran also dropped the dollar earlier this year in response to President Trump’s travel ban. As the tide continues to turn against the petrodollar, eventually even our allies will start to question what best serves their own interests.

Many E.U. member states are clashing with the unelected leadership in Brussels over immigration, terrorism, and austerity measures. If no solutions are found and things deteriorate, other countries could potentially follow the U.K.’s lead and vote to leave, as well. It is starting to become obvious that countries in Eastern Europe will look to the East to get the resources their economies need.

China, Russia, and India are all ahead of the curve and started stockpiling gold years ago. They recognize that hard assets will be the measure of true wealth in the near future — not fiat money. The historic hyperinflation that has occurred in these countries solidified the importance of precious metals in their monetary systems. Unfortunately, most Americans are ignorant of the past and will likely embrace more government bailouts and money printing when faced with the next recession. Even Fed officials have admitted that more quantitative easing is likely the only path going forward.

Several renowned investors have warned about this ongoing shift of economic power from West to East, but bureaucrats and central bankers refuse to admit how serious things could get. The impact on the average person could be devastating if they are not properly educated and prepared for the fallout. (…)

Pepe ESCOBAR: „China widens its Silk Road to the world“; Asia Times, 13.05.2017

globalcrisis/globalchange News

Martin Zeis 13.05.2017

Tomorrow the two-day Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation is starting in Beijing. Representatives from more than a hundred nations will converge in Beijing and most of them are from the 120-nation Non-Aligned Movement (NAM).

„Of course we will have Vladimir Putin, representing the Russia-China strategic partnership (BRICS, SCO) that spans everything from energy to infrastructure projects (including the future Trans-Siberian high-speed rail). But, crucially, we will also have Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, leaders of two key hubs of OBOR/BRI.

Most of the West still needs a weatherman to see which way the wind is blowing. And a lot of Western media revel in dismissing OBOR/BRI as a conspiracy, a “scheme”, or a Chinese attempt to “encircle” Eurasia. Only one G7 leader will be in Beijing; Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni, who is very keen to investigate symbiotic links between Italy’s Industry 4.0 program and China’s Made in China 2025 manufacturing initiative.

Angela Merkel might have turned down her invitation but it doesn’t really matter as German industrialists are all for OBOR/BRI.“ (1)

In an article „China widens its Silk Road to the world“ Escobar specifies the geopolitical/geoeconomic implications of this connectivity project — spanning 65 nations, 60% of the world’s population and a third of global economic output.

Escobar is one of the few world famous journalists covering the New Silk Roads since they were first announced in 2013. (2)

(1) Asia Times 13.05.2017 – see attachment (pdf) and URL: http://www.atimes.com/article/china-widens-silk-road-world

(2) Pepe Escobar: New Silk Roads and an Alternate Eurasian Century; TomDispatchOctober 5, 2014 URL: http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175903/tomgram%3A_pepe_escobar%2C_new_silk_roads_and_an_alternate_eurasian_century/#more

ESCOBAR-China-widens-its-Silk-Road-to-the-world170513.pdf .pdf

Dilma ROUSSEFF: “Creation of BRICS really scared some countries; The BRICS Post, 10.06.2016 

globalcrisis/globalchange NEWS
Martin Zeis, 10.06.2016

10.06.2016 —http://thebricspost.com/creation-of-brics-really-scared-some-countries-rousseff/#.V1rgxunZr_V

Dilma ROUSSEFF: “Creation of BRICS really scared some countries

Brazil’s suspended President Dilma Rousseff has said those betting on the BRICS to disintegrate are making an “unforgivable mistake”.

“The creation of BRICS was an event of unprecedented significance in world affairs. The emergence of BRICS and the G20 group was a peak from the standpoint of multilateral processes and of building a multipolar world,” Rousseff told Russian state daily Rossiiskaya Gazeta.

The BRICS nations account for about a quarter of global economic output. China and India are among the world’s fastest growing large economies.

“I should say that the creation of BRICS really scared some countries, and we know that. Thinking that this quintet will fall apart or disappear would be tantamount to making a strategic and unforgivable geopolitical mistake,” she added.

The Brazilian Senate voted to impeach President Dilma Rousseff in May.
However, a wave of scandals buffeting Brazil’s interim government is weakening the resolve of some senators to oust suspended Rousseff, offering the leftist leader hope of surviving an impeachment trial in the upper house.

Leaked recordings, of politicians and key allies of interim President Michel Temer, discussing Brazil’s sprawling kickback scandal has dented the credibility of the new administration.
Temer’s Transparency Minister Fabiano Silveira and Planning Minister Romero Juca were caught conspiring against the Petrobras corruption probe in leaked recordings which were broadcast by national media. Both Ministers stepped down subsequently.
Brazilian daily O Estado de S Paulo also reported that Temer’s seven-year-old son, Michelzinho, is the registered owner of properties worth $550,000. The report also said Temer’s total assets nearly doubled between 2006 and 2014.

Meanwhile, Rousseff said on Thursday that each of the BRICS states are currently experiencing economic problems stemming from the West-induced crisis.

A new World Bank report, Global Economic Prospects: Divergences and Risks, says emerging economies need to look to policy reform in order to keep pace with growing global challenges. (1)

“But we will overcome that crisis to get even stronger than we were in the past. Our alliance rests upon the idea of strategic nature of these relations. It is an inter-continental union,” Rousseff said.

The BRICS Bank announced its first set of investments in April this year. The $100 billion NDB will compete with institutions where the US has considerably more influence—organizations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. (2)

According to surveys by Brazilian media, up to a dozen of the 55 senators who voted last month to put Rousseff on trial are now undecided.

If just a couple of those change sides, the Temer camp would lose the 54 votes it needs – two-thirds of the 81-seat Senate – to convict Rousseff. She would then be able to serve out her term until 2018.

Analyst Sam Cowie says many view Temer’s government as illegitimate. (3)
“What legitimacy does Temer’s unelected government have to impose cuts that will seriously affect tens of millions of mainly poor and lower income Brazilians?” Cowie asks.

Links
(1) http://thebricspost.com/emerging-markets-dragged-down-in-2016-report/#.V1riGOnZr_U
(2) http://thebricspost.com/brics-bank-announces-first-set-of-loans/#.V1riNOnZr_U
(3) http://thebricspost.com/unpopular-and-scandal-plagued-what-legitimacy-does-brazils-interim-government-have-to-impose-painful-cuts/#.V1riUenZr_V