— Weiterlesen thesaker.is/its-a-nikolai-patrushev-yang-jiechi-world/
By Andrew KORYBKO
The latest de-escalation in Donbass is attributable to Russia’s resoluteness in refusing to fall into the US‘ Hybrid War trap of launching an all-out military intervention there in support of its legal interests while nevertheless flexing its muscles in t
Russia’s Anti-American Containment Policy
Russia finally appears to be serious about “decoupling” from the West after over half a decade of its well-intended and passionate efforts to enter into a rapprochement with it following the onset of the Ukrainian Crisis. As I wrote last week after the scandal that erupted upon EU foreign policy chief Borrell’s return to Brussels from Moscow, “Russia Needs To Realize That EU Diplomacy Is Based On Deception”. I predicted that this event was a game-changer which would push Russia to accelerate its foreign policy diversification strategy towards non-Western countries, especially those in the Global South. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov is evidently very serious about this after dramatically declaring on Wednesday that his country “will pursue the policy of active containment of the US on all fronts” if American pressure on Russia doesn’t soon end. He promised to prevent foreign meddling in his country’s democratic processes, promote multipolarity across the world, and impose counter-sanctions on the US. (…)
Hier ist der 20-Punkte-Plan, wie Russland die USA eindämmen könnte
19. Februar 2021Von Andrew KORYBKO
Die dramatische Erklärung des stellvertretenden russischen Außenministers Sergej Rjabkow, dass sein Land „die Politik der aktiven Eindämmung der USA an allen Fronten verfolgen wird“, wenn der amerikanische Druck auf Russland nicht bald endet, inspirierte zu einem einzigartigen 20-Punkte-Plan, wie dies in der Praxis aussehen könnte.Russlands anti-amerikanische EindämmungspolitikRussland scheint es endlich ernst zu meinen mit der „Abkopplung“ vom Westen, nachdem es sich über ein halbes Jahrzehnt lang wohlmeinend und leidenschaftlich um eine Annäherung an den Westen bemüht hatte, nachdem die Ukraine-Krise ausgebrochen war. Wie ich letzte Woche nach dem Skandal schrieb, der nach der Rückkehr des EU-Außenpolitikchefs Borrell aus Moskau nach Brüssel ausbrach, „muss Russland erkennen, dass die EU-Diplomatie auf Täuschung beruht“. Ich prophezeite, dass dieses Ereignis ein „game-changer“ sei, der Russland dazu bringen würde, seine außenpolitische Diversifizierungsstrategie gegenüber nicht-westlichen Ländern zu beschleunigen, insbesondere jenen im globalen Süden. Der stellvertretende Außenminister Sergej Rjabkow meint das offensichtlich sehr ernst, nachdem eram Mittwoch dramatisch erklärt hatte, dass sein Land „die Politik der aktiven Eindämmung der USA an allen Fronten verfolgen wird“, wenn der amerikanische Druck auf Russland nicht bald aufhört. Er versprach, ausländische Einmischung in die demokratischen Prozesse seines Landes zu verhindern, Multipolarität in der Welt zu fördern und Gegensanktionen gegen die USA zu verhängen.(…)
Full dokument in German/Engl. here:
The End Of The Nagorno-Karabakh War: Retrospection, Clarification, And Forecast
Azerbaijan’s Glorious Victory
The Nagorno-Karbakh War finally ended as a result of Armenia’s sudden Russian-facilitated surrender following its total defeat on the battlefield. The agreement that was reached between the Azerbaijani, Russian, and Armenian leaders can be read here on the official website of the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It provides for the deployment of Russian peacekeepers along the line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Lachin Corridor in parallel with the Armenian forces‘ withdrawal from the universally recognized Azerbaijani territory that it had illegally occupied for nearly three decades. The Russian peacekeepers will remain there for five years but could have their mission extended for more five-year intervals pending the approval of both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Either one of them, however, can declare their intent to terminate the agreement six months prior to the expiration of its term (as is likely to happen). Although not mentioned in the actual deal itself, Azerbaijani President Aliyev also said that Turkish peacekeepers will jointly carry out activities with Russia.
Additionally, the agreement allows for the return of all refugees and internally displaced people to the formerly occupied territories, as well as an exchange of prisoners, bodies, and other such humanitarian procedures. It can therefore be said that the deal will inevitably result in the full implementation of the four UNSC Resolutions on the matter (822, 853, 874, 884), but it interestingly goes a bit further than just that. The last of the nine terms concerns the creation of a corridor between the western regions of Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic via southern Armenia. Control over transport communication will be carried out by the Russian Border Guard Service, which highlights the crucial role that the Eurasian Great Power is playing in this visionary arrangement. All told, the deal represents an amazing victory for Azerbaijan, one which wouldn’t have happened without perfect unity between its President, Armed Forces, and people. They stood strong for nearly 30 years, concentrated on liberating their occupied territories, and finally fulfilled this legendary task.
A Clear Track Record Of Analytical Accuracy
The author took a very keen interest in their ultimately victorious counteroffensive since it began in late September, publishing 36 analytical articles about everything from the conflict’s history to the latest military dynamics and even the grand strategic factors at play. With humbleness and thanking God for the insight that He inspired, the author produced stunningly accurate analyses which even predicted the joint Russian-Turkish peacekeeping mission in mid-October at a time when most of the world was convinced that those two countries were destined to clash with one another. For the purpose of enlightening his readers, he’s sharing the chronological sequence of his work so that they can follow the evolution of his thoughts during this time and hopefully learn how to improve their own analyses in the event that they’re so inclined. His clear track record of analytical accuracy should also be contrasted with the commentary published by his peers in the Alt-Media Community, many of whom not only got everything totally wrong, but even in some cases completely discredited themselves after pushing propaganda that has since been conclusively debunked by the facts:
8 October: India’s Nagorno-Karabakh Crisis Conundrum
20 October: An Interview With Andrew Korybko
What Went Wrong?
Having proven his credibility and credentials to authoritatively speak on this topic, the author will now engage in some retrospection in order to educate everyone about the reasons why so many others got almost everything about this conflict so terribly wrong. It’s important to understand that media literacy played a huge role in why many people were deceived. They lacked the ability to differentiate between the various information products freely available to them such as journalism, investigations, analyses, op-eds, activism, propaganda, and even fake news, which he elaborated upon earlier in a piece about how “Media Literacy, Not Intimidation & Censorship, Is The Best Way To Fight So-Called Propaganda”. Better media literacy could have resulted in folks realizing that they were being deceived by certain supposedly “credible” sources, which in turn wouldn’t have led to so many false expectations about the course of this conflict. Equally important, however, was the effect of “wishful thinking”, “groupthink”, and “political correctness” in misleading the masses.
Pro-Armenian supporters “wishfully thought” that they’d continue to indefinitely perpetuate their illegal occupation of Azerbaijani territory, which led to them believing now-debunked reports which fed into their “confirmation bias”. Many analysts, however, were wrongly caught up in the dynamics of “groupthink” after convincing themselves that Russia and Turkey were “competing” in the South Caucasus, which blinded them to the reality of their tacit coordination during this conflict that ultimately resulted in their planned joint peacekeeping mission as announced by President Aliyev. Still others were aware of the truth but felt uncomfortable publicly sharing their views about it due to the heavy pressure put upon them by their peers to abide by the totalitarian concept of so-called “political correctness”. Taken together, these three factors led to ridiculously inaccurate claims being made about the most recent phase of the Nagorno-Karabakh War. Most of these mistakes were “innocent”, but some might have been deliberately committed in order to deceive others.
The Immediate Consequences
The world is quickly waking up to the new reality that the Russian-Turkish Strategic Partnership is one of the most important forces in the so-called “Greater Middle East”, from Azerbaijan down through Syria and even as far afield as Libya. It used to be that those such as the author who analyzed this emerging geopolitical fact were regarded as “conspiracy theorists” or worse by their peers, but now the only “conspiracy theorists” are those who deny the transregional significance of their bilateral relations. The Alt-Media Community is mostly discredited now and will have to work extremely hard to rebuild the trust that it lost among its audience after unintentionally or deliberately deceiving them regarding this conflict. The same holds true for the Mainstream Media and think tanks, some of which might have in hindsight been functioning as undeclared lobbyists of the once-powerful Armenian diaspora that has actually been defanged as a result of these developments after proving itself unable to manipulate others into intervening in the conflict to save their colonial project.
Their emotional fearmongering that Azerbaijan was preparing to commit an imminent “genocide” against the Armenians was revealed to have been nothing more than a manipulative infoar narrative intended to provoke a larger war. It’ll arguably go down in history as being just as infamous as Bush Jr’s‘ equally false “Weapons of Mass Destruction” claim which was made for the same reason but regrettably actually ended up resulting in the desired military outcome. Armenians are furious at being deceived by their “intellectuals” (both at home and abroad), as well as Pashinyan who suddenly capitulated despite reassuring everyone on an almost daily basis that there hadn’t been any losses whatsoever and that “total victory is within reach”. So enraged were they that they even stormed the national parliament the night that their country’s de-facto surrender was announced, which was incredibly ironic since it hints that a patriotic protest movement might eventually overthrow the same man who came to power on the back of a Soros-driven pro-Western Color Revolution.
What Comes Next?
It’s unclear whether Pashinyan will resign (and possibly flee abroad), be overthrown (and consequently risk suffering a fate as dark as Ceausescu’s), or somehow manage to retain power (albeit as a figurehead leader), but it’s obvious that his political capital isn’t anything like what it used to be. He’s personally responsible for sending potentially thousands of Armenian men into the Azerbaijani meat grinder over the past seven weeks for what ended up being no reason at all, hence why his people are so furious with him. Furthermore, his government is responsible for committing war crimes against the Azerbaijani people so he might even face justice as The Hague, especially if his people and/or military overthrow him (the latter possibly with an intent to receive reduced sentences and/or immunity for their own crimes by handing him over). Azerbaijan will also likely see to it that Armenia pays restitution for its years of illegal occupation. As for Russia, it might stop discussing reports of “mercenaries” in Nagorno-Karabakh since it seems that it was all just an Armenian lie.
Armenia’s Russian-facilitated surrender might soon lead to a rapprochement with neighboring Turkey too, which when paired with the Western Azerbaijan-Nakhchivan Corridor, could unlock the South Caucasus‘ potential to serve as one of the most geostrategically crucial connectivity crossroads in the world. Azerbaijan already benefits from both the “Middle Corridor” connecting East-West trade between China and Europe via Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Turkey as well as the North-South Transport Corridor connecting Russia with India via Azerbaijan and Iran, but now Armenia could excitedly be integrated into the mix in order to take advantage of the landlocked country’s “land-linked” capability (to borrow the term that similarly positioned Laos uses). For that promising future to happen, though, Armenians must denounce their fascist ideology of “Greater Armenia” just like Nazi Germany denounced its own genocidal expansionism after its war, make meaningful amends for their crimes, and earnestly embrace reconciliation with their neighbors.
The sudden end of the Nagorno-Karabakh War is a moment of reckoning for all. Azerbaijan single-handedly showed the international community that a united nation can indeed succeed in unilaterally implementing UNSC Resolutions which had hitherto been ignored out of “political convenience”. This powerfully proves that international law is still alive and well across the world despite what critics claim. Moreover, Russia’s mature response to the rapidly unfolding developments in remaining neutral despite intense pressure by the Armenian diaspora lobby and their surrogates to intervene in Yerevan’s support and Moscow’s pivotal role in facilitating Armenia’s de-facto surrender speak to the success of its (sometimes imperfectly executed) “balancing” act, which confirms its status both a peacemaker and also one of the world’s most important Great Powers. Nevertheless, it can be expected that some ultra-nationalist forces might wrongly try to blame Russia for Armenia’s seemingly “unexpected” loss in order to unconvincingly deflect blame from their own leaders.
It’s not just ultra-nationalist Armenians who might cling to this literal “conspiracy theory”, but perhaps even those non-Armenians in the Alt-Media and analytical communities whose work has been almost completely discredited by none other than their own hand after they submitted to “wishful thinking”, “groupthink”, “political correctness”, and/or willingly functioned as undeclared lobbyists of the previously powerful Armenian diaspora. Those supposedly Russian-friendly voices might now resort to political Russophobia out of desperation to save their own reputations instead of publicly accounting for their analytical errors and/or even apologizing for deceiving those who trusted them. In any case, their likely infowar meddling won’t have any meaningful impact on derailing the bright future that awaits the South Caucasus. This geostrategic region can now fulfill its destiny in serving as the crucial node for connecting North-South and East-West trade across Eurasia, which will bring immense benefits to its many people and greatly accelerate the reconstruction of Nagorno-Karabakh as well.
Full text you will read here:
Rand Corporation 2019
Despite its vulnerabilities and anxieties, Russia remains a formidable opponent in a few key domains. What non-violent, cost-imposing measures could the United States pursue to stress Russia’s economy, its military, and the regime’s political standing at home and abroad? (…)
August 26, 2020
Belarus – NATO Lobby Acknowledges That Its Color Revolution Failed
On August 15 we explained why the color revolution in Belarus would fail. Belarus‘ President Alexander Lukashenko had offered President Vladimir Putin of Russia to finally implement the long delayed Union State that will unite Belarus with Russia. In exchange he wanted full Russian backing for shutting down the U.S. led color revolution against him. Putin accepted the deal. In consequence:
Lukashenko, and his police, will not hang from a pole. Russia will take care of the problem and the Union State will finally be established.
That does not mean that the color revolution attempt is over. The U.S. and its lackey Poland will not just pack up and leave. But with the full backing from Russia assured, Lukashenko can take the necessary steps to end the riots.
And that is what he did. Lukashenko continued to allow demonstrations but when on Sunday the demonstrators were directed to storm the presidential palace they saw a theatrical but strong response: (…)
Putin’s Call For A New System & The 1944 Battle Of Bretton Woods: Lessons For Victory Day
As today’s world teeters on the brink of a financial collapse greater than anything the world experienced in either 1923 Weimar or the 1929 Great depression, a serious discussion has been initiated by leaders of Russia and China regarding the terms of the new system which must inevitably replace the currently dying neo-liberal order. Most recently, Vladimir Putin re-initiated his January 16, 2020 call for a new emergency economic conference to deal with the looming disaster based upon a live session with representatives of the five nuclear powers of the UN Security Council.
This new system as we have seen promoted by the likes of the Bank of England and leading technocrats over the past year, is based upon an anti-Nation State, unipolar system which typically goes by the term “Green New Deal”. In other words, this is a system ruled by a technocratic elite managing the reduction of world population through the monetization of carbon reduction practices under a Global Government.
No matter how you look at it, a new system will be created out of the ashes of the currently dying world order. The question is only: Will it benefit the oligarchy or the people?
In order to inform the necessary decision making going into this emergency conference, it is useful to revisit the last such emergency conference that defined the terms of a world economic architecture in July 1944 so that similar mistakes that were then made by anti-imperialist forces are not made once more. (…)
What’s certain is that the Empire won’t go quietly into the night…
— Weiterlesen www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-exposes-americas-existential-battle-stop-eurasian-integration
A bird’s eye view of the vineyard
Revisiting the win-win-win-win outcome in Syria
[this analysis was written for the Unz Review]
In his recent article “The Road to Damascus: How the Syria War Was Won” Pepe Escobar summarized the outcome of the war in Syria in the following way:
“It’s a quadruple win. The U.S. performs a face saving withdrawal, which Trump can sell as avoiding a conflict with NATO ally Turkey. Turkey has the guarantee – by the Russians – that the Syrian Army will be in control of the Turkish-Syrian border. Russia prevents a war escalation and keeps the Russia-Iran-Turkey peace process alive. And Syria will eventually regain control of the entire northeast.”
This otherwise excellent summary overlooks two out of three members of the “Axis of Kindness”, including Israel and the KSA. Of course, later in his analysis Pepe does address these actors, and also includes Kuwait. Furthermore, a thorough discussion of what took place would have to also include China, Hezbollah, Yemen and the EU (well, the ones that matter, the UK and France. The rest are just voiceless colonies of the USA).
Most of the analyses of what just took place focused on the “what”. I will try to look into the “why” and the “how” of what just happened in Syria. Still, I don’t propose to make such a detailed analysis, but I do want to re-classify the actors in a somewhat different way: by their relative strength.
|The “Axis of Kindness”:United States+CENTCOM+NATO+Israel+KSA||by far the most powerful actor almost by any measure: a bigger military force then all the other actors combined (at least when looked at regionally), huge economic power (the dollar is still THE #1 currency on the planet), total control of the region (via CENTCOM) and quasi unconditional support from Europe (via NATO). Finally, Israel does pack a powerful military punch. This actor has only ONE weakness, but more about that later.|
|Iran+Hezbollah+Houthi+Shia forces in Iraq||in regional terms, Iran is the local superpower which can even successfully defy the Axis of Kindness forces (and has done so since the Islamic Revolution of 1979).|
|Russia+Syria||I placed Russia and Syria in the same group and I could have added Iran, but since I believe that Russia objectively has more power over the Syrian government than Iran, I think that it is important to put Russia and Syria together simply because Damascus cannot say “no” to Moscow, but could do so, at least in theory, to Tehran. Finally, Russia and Iran agree on the main issues, but have different visions for the future of the Middle-East. Thus this is another reason to look at them separately, even if not necessarily in opposition to each other. In military terms, Russia is very strong, then very vulnerable, then very strong again, it all depends on your level of analysis (see below)|
|Turkey+pro-Turkish factions in Syria||That one is a difficult one to classify. On one hand, Turkey does not have any regional allies (the Ottoman Empire left only hatred and deep resentment in its former colonies). For a while, the pro-Turkish factions, which were liberally showered with weapons, money, training, logistical support, etc, by the US and the KSA, but eventually these factions grew weaker and weaker until they reached a state of advanced impotence leaving Turkey pretty much alone (we will also look into that below).|
|The Kurds||For a while, they sure looked potentially powerful: not only did the Kurds have a pretty big military power (albeit mostly one restricted to infantry), they had the support of Axis of Kindness and, especially, Israel which saw any form of Independent Kurdistan as a great tool to weaken and even threaten Iraq, Turkey, Iran and Syria. Furthermore, the Kurds happened to control a lot of oil rich regions and they could always retreat in the mountainous areas if needed.|
|The Takfiris (i.e. the many and constantly name-changing franchises of what used to be called “al-Qaeda”).||In reality, the Takfiris really ought to be classified together with the Axis of Kindness since they have been the foot-soldiers/cannon-fodder for the AngloZionist since the 1980s (from Afghanistan then to modern day Syria). Nonetheless, we will consider them as distinct from the rest of the Axis of Kindness forces.|
Of course, and just like any other taxonomy, this one is necessarily somewhat subjective and others might use different criteria or categories. Now let’s look at what I believe is the key to the control of the entire region: the ability to place “boots on the ground” or the lack of such an ability: (…)