https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html

SAMUEL CHARAP, MIRANDA PRIEBE
Avoiding a Long War
U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
How does this end? Increasingly, this question is dominating discussion
of the Russia-Ukraine war in Washington and other Western capitals.
Although successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson
in fall 2022 renewed optimism about Kyiv’s prospects on the battlefield,
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement on September 21 of a partial
mobilization and annexation of four Ukrainian provinces was a stark reminder that
this war is nowhere near a resolution. Fighting still rages across nearly 1,000 km of
front lines. Negotiations on ending the conflict have been suspended since May.
The trajectory and ultimate outcome of the war will, of course, be determined
largely by the policies of Ukraine and Russia. But Kyiv and Moscow are not the only
capitals with a stake in what happens. This war is the most significant interstate
conflict in decades, and its evolution will have major consequences for the United
States. It is appropriate to assess how this conflict may evolve, what alternative tra-
jectories might mean for U.S. interests, and what Washington can do to promote a
trajectory that best serves U.S. interests. (…)